WA Election 2025: Key Seats to Watch as Labor Faces a Major Swing

WA Election 2025 Key Seats Western Australia is heading for a major political shift. Polls predict a historic swing against Labor in Saturday’s election. Despite expected losses, Labor could still secure one of its best results ever.

WA Election 2025 Key Seats:How Big Will the Swing Be?

Two major polls suggest the Liberals will regain 12.2% to 13% of the two-party vote statewide. This shift could return up to 11 seats in the lower house.

Premier Roger Cook admits Labor will lose seats. Party insiders expect a loss between 12 to 18 seats.

• A 12-seat loss would be a relief for Labor.
• If 18 seats flip, the Liberals and Nationals will celebrate a comeback.

While the overall swing sets the trend, individual seats will determine the final outcome. Let’s look at the key battlegrounds for election night.

Seats to Watch:WA Election 2025 Key Seats

Churchlands – Zempilas Brings the Heat

Basil Zempilas has revived Liberal energy but also sparked controversy.

He faces Labor’s Christine Tonkin, a quiet but steady backbencher. Tonkin is likely to lose, but the final margin will show how voters feel about Zempilas’ bold approach.

Nedlands & Carine – A Liberal Comeback

WA Election 2025 Key Seats ! These wealthy electorates flipped to Labor in 2021 but are set to return to the Liberals.

• Nedlands: Katrina Stratton is leaving for the upper house, clearing the way for Liberal Jonathan Huston, a rising star.
• Carine: Labor’s Paul Lilburne has stayed low-profile, helping Liam Staltari gain traction.

Both Huston and Staltari are seen as future Liberal leaders.

Scarborough – A Battle on the Waves

This race has drawn massive public interest.

Labor’s Stuart Aubrey, a tradie with a love for surfing, hopes to keep this seat red. Liberal Damien Kelly, another surfer, has strong local support.

Scarborough is too close to call.

South Perth – The Toughest Call

South Perth remains unpredictable.

Labor MP Geoff Baker has stayed quiet, but insiders say he could hold off Liberal and deputy mayor Bronwyn Waugh.

Riverton – Can ‘Dr Jags’ Survive?

Labor’s Jagadish Krishnan (Dr Jags) has been popular. But recent controversies might cut into his 11% margin.

Fremantle – A Green or Independent Upset?

Water Minister Simone McGurk faces tough competition from the Greens and independent Kate Hullett. Both are pushing hard on Labor’s climate inaction.

Fremantle has flipped Green before. Could it happen again?

Regional WA – A Nightmare for Labor?

Labor’s support in the regions is crumbling due to new gun laws and the federal live export ban.

• Warren-Blackwood could fall first.
• Geraldton, Kalgoorlie, and Albany are also at risk, despite Labor’s heavy spending.

Nationals leader Shane Love is in a tough fight for Mid-West, taking on Mem Beard, a former Nationals MP who switched to the Liberals.

The Liberals will make gains, but the final tally matters most.

Labor will either hold a strong majority or struggle with a weaker mandate. The Liberals and Nationals see this election as their best shot at a comeback.

As votes roll in, all eyes will be on these crucial battlegrounds.

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